Eurovision 2012 Betting Guide

The decision to move away from the public vote and now involve 'expert juries' in the voting process has made a mockery of the competition. There is now a 50-50 split between experts and public in each country and this is purely because the more powerful western nations didn't like the results that democracy was producing. If an 'Eastern' government introduced this system in their elections we would probably impose economic sanctions, however when we do it to stop the Moldova's of this world winning Eurovision it's fine. Stuff democracy when it suits us! Rant over, and here's hoping for a Georgia, Moldova or Albania victory.

The days of a fairly predictable competition are gone and it's now a bit of a lottery to make money betting on Eurovision. It's not impossible however. We're now looking for performances that will appeal to both the public and mysterious 'music industry insiders' on the panels. Maybe it is impossible after all.

This year's collection of songs are marginally better than last year's, but this is in no way a vintage competition. Sweden lead the market with what looks like a false favourite. It's a warbling, euphoric dance track that should go top ten, but hopefully won't win. But what do you oppose it with? The list of possibilities looks weak in the extreme. Russia have entered a gang of ancient dinner ladies who may get the sympathy vote from the public, but possibly not the juries. Italy's entry is an Amy Whitehouse wannabe and is agreeable enough but not outstanding, while the UK's own Engelburt Humperdinck sounds like he's stuck in a sixties time warp. More likely contenders look like Serbia's power ballad, Iceland's duet and Turkey's comedy sea shanty. You can also throw in lively outsiders such as Denmark, Norway and even Azerbajain.

This year I'll be waiting for the actual performances and betting once all the songs have been sung. If you want to bet ante-post I'd recommend Iceland, Sweden and Serbia as the possible serious challengers with Norway and Turkey thrown in as wild cards. Anything can happen on Saturday, so don't be afraid to move for a big outsider if they produce a fantastic performance on the night and you fancy the song. Having said this, Sweden is the likeliest winner, but presents no value at all at around the 6-4 mark. 

From a music point of view my personal favourite was Finland's entry that got knocked out in the semi-final. I quite like Romania as well. But as we all know Eurovision has little to do with quality music.

Recommendations if you're desperate:

• Iceland to win at 66-1
• Serbia to win at 17-1 or bigger
• Turkey Each Way at 65-1 or bigger
• Keep your eye on big performances by Denmark and Norway  

Fingers crossed for a decent showing from these selections, but I wouldn't put my mortagage on anything let alone Eurovision. So go gamble responsibly and enjoy Saturday evening's festivities.



　

Top 20 Eurovision Entries (5-1)

5. Gerli Padar (Estonia) 2007
Another great song sung by a talented singer. To win Eurovison however, it takes a twist or a gimic. Smart dancers in cravats and braces were just never going to be enough for Estonia's 2007 entry. If they'd theatrically removed her suit to reveal a Xena Warrior Princess outfit underneath, this would have walked it.

4. Ani Lorak (Ukraine) 2008
The Ukraine do the business once again with 2008's up-tempo, hi-octane piece of power pop. Slick performance, classy costume and sparkly earrings combine to form the perfect counter balance to Ani's thunderous vocal talents.

3. Hora Din Moldova (Moldova) 2009
The ultimate Eurovision formula for success can be expressed as: Attractive singer + booming voice + short skirt + boots + traditionally clad kossak style dancers = sure-fire winner. It didn't quite work out for Moldova, but this is an all time classic piece of Eurovison fun from one of my favourite nations. The Kossaks are a particularly camp bunch in this case and are especially fleet of foot and skippy. Fashion fans should also note the purple hue of the boots, the beautiful ginger hair and the added bonus of a traditional costume on the singer herself.

2. Laura (Finland) 2002
Androgynous Scandinavian action from Finland is rarely a bad thing and Laura belted out one of the greatest songs to grace Eurovision. Possibly the best composition to not win the competition and the blame lies firmly at the feet of whoever 'designed' the costumes for the backing singers. The sleeveless T-shirt and jeans look is the worst case scenario. And again 2002 looks like it was filmed in 1980's-o-vision.

1. Tina Karol (Ukraine) 2006
Unsurprisingly it's Tina Karol at number one. Not just a great Eurovision performance but a great performance in any context (see All Time 50 Greatest Tracks). This is the textbook execution of the Eurovision success formula (see Moldova at number 3), but with the added bonus of an accent as thick and sexy as condensed liquid PVC, a cheeky wink and a lung busting finale. Ukraine must be crowned unofficial Eurovision champions with four entries in my chart of the decade and they are definitely the model the UK should aspire to. As close to perfection as Eurovision gets.

Top 20 Eurovision Entries (15-11)

15. Marie N (Latvia) 2002
Another competition winner and a performance that looks like it comes from a bygone age rather than 2002. With all that lacklustre dancing and substandard choreography it's a good job they pulled it round with a Bucks Fizz style strip/costume change. Slick, but not a patch on Cheryl Baker.

14. Kabat (Czech Republic) 2007
Proof again that it's never a good idea to stray too far away from cheese-centred pop ballads or candy floss flavoured frivolity in Europe's biggest song contest. The Czech's went for a growly, grungy rock number and didn't even make the final! A travesty of justice, but I blame the denim. Jeans are never a good look, but in Eurovision it's a fashion disaster too far.

13. Ruslana (Ukraine) 2004
Much thigh slapping, leather outfits, ten feet high flames and shouting 'Hey!' at full volume. It had winner written all over it the minute you saw the cheeky, jiggy little dance a it duly won the whole competition at a canter. One of the few examples of Xena Warrior Princess inspired pop music that actually succeeded. Perhaps a couple of guys in ferret costumes could have completed the Beastmaster look, but that's just me being picky.

12. Maria Haukaas Storeng (Norway) 2008
Navy blue has always been one of my favourite colours and Maria looks great in that fitted, sensible frock, especially with those co-ordinated backing singers. She can actually sing and this would have been a world wide hit if Christina Aguilera had released it. As it happened it only came 5th.

11. Verka Serduchka (Ukraine) 2007
Not just the campest song in the chart, but possibly the campest thing in the whole world ever! It's all a bit disturbing really, however easily some of the best dancing and costumes ever seen in Eurovison. And hats off to Ukraine, that's two songs in my top 20 already.

Top 20 Eurovision Entries (20-16)

Top Twenty Eurovision Entries of the Century (Part 1)

It's Eurovision this Saturday, so time to get all camp, cheesy and in my case, giddy. To celebrate I've put together the top twenty Eurovision entries since we moved into a new millennium. They may not have actually achieved greatness in the competition but they are my personal favourites from the last twelve years. This may well prove to much for inexperienced readers, so I've kindly chunked them into groups of five for posting over the next week. So brace yourself for excruciating ballads, grown men skipping about in national costumes (frocks to you and me) and a whole host of other Eurovision based mayhem. Here's hoping you enjoy the countdown from 20 to 16.

20. Claudia Beni (Croatia) 2003
A great song but ultimately let down by a dodgy performance. A classic example of the awkward dance routine in an attempt to deflect attention from a wooden singer. Nice pink trousers on the backing singers though.

19. Evridiki (Cyprus) 2007
Perennial also-rans Cyprus came up trumps in 2007 with this glam-rock meets space-witch combination. The band look suitably uncomfortable in their alternative Placebo style getup and the singer clearly needed ear surgery to complete the evil 'gelfling' look; it's essential the ears stick through the hair.

18. Serebro (Russia) 2007
Russia always understands that sex sells in Eurovision, and hit the nail on the head in 2007 with their three vocalists looking like a combination of Allo Allo style waitresses and naughty nuns. The song is a catchy Britney style romp and the lead singer has an engaging gap-toothed grin. The only drawback is the Jacko style dance routine in the official video, thankfully they didn't attempt it in the actual performance.

17. Sertab Erener (Turkey) 2003
A Eurovision classic and eventual competition winner, but an absolute disaster in betting terms for the Doccortex bank account. I really didn't rate the song, but the performance and the tricky 'cat's cradle' dance routine on the night won over the public a relegated my Spanish selection into obscurity. With hindsight I can appreciate a worthy winner.

16. Mija Martina (Bosnia & Herzegovina) 2003
A proper Kareoke style sing-a-long number from 2003. Bosnia & Herzegovina always turn out competitive entries and this is the pick of the bunch from the last decade. A strange but stylish string frock as well; a treat for fashion fans.

17. Tina Karol - Show Me Your Love

It seems appropriate that I'm writing this piece on the day that the UK announced Engelbert Humperdinck as the 2012 entry for the Eurovision Song Contest. I am an unashamed fan of the whole Eurovision circus and start to get a little giddy at this time of year for the forthcoming festivities. That's not to say that I spend all my time listening to cheesy Euro-pop numbers, rather that I enjoy an intensive couple of weeks listening to all the entries with the added incentive that I may make some money by backing the winner.

Eurovision is a fun filled festival of frothy Euro frivolity, but the UK media seem to have taken against it, basically because we don't win every year. The reason we don't win is because we enter useless songs and other countries actually put some time and effort into their selections. All the talk of political and block voting is a myth and a result of our xenophobia. Sadly, our nation's inadequacies mean that we see it as a chance to put one over 'Johnny Foreigner' and we end up missing the whole point; that it's just a bit of fun!

In every Eurovision there is a track where an attractive young woman, usually from Eastern Europe, wears an enticing costume and is backed by some traditional dancers for a right old thigh slapping, boot stomping knees up. 'Show me your Love' is the archetypal Eurovision entry of this kind and easily the best Eurovision song of the last twenty years. Tina Karol has a sexy accent as thick as condensed treacle, the obligatory short skirt and boots ensemble, a group of skipping Kosak style dancers and one hell of a fine pair of lungs on her, (just listen to the stadium busting long note near the end for proof.) Thighs are slapped, boots are stomped and there's even an excruciating little wink and thumbs up to camera towards the end of the performance. If this doesn't convince you that Eurovision is a good thing then I'm not sure if anything will.

Eurovision 2011 Betting Guide

In the worst Eurovision in living memory we have so few countries with live chances of winning that surely we can make some money. On the downside however, we have a red hot favourite in the French entry; a turgid and staid pop-opera cliche that sounds like a cross between Rhydian from the X-Factor and the french national anthem. I think it's definitely worth opposing, although it's the most likely winner unfortunately.

Surprisingly, those other X-Factor buffoons Jedward, put up a reasonable performance of a Britney-esque number and they're second favourites! Their poor performance skills may let them down and I really don't fancy them to win.

I'm seriously tempted to back the UK's Blue entry as we're getting really decent odds at 13-1, as the public believe the whole 'political voting' conspiracy and are reluctant to bet a UK entry. I prefer to believe we don't win because we always enter a rubbish song and just expect to win because we're British. If you remember that Blue were massive in Europe, have toured extensively on the continent to promote their comeback and have the best performance skills in the contest, then they must have a serious chance.

Others with chances are Germany (great song but same singer as last year), Azerbaijan (wouldn't rule them out but they've had better songs than this is recent years and not won), and Estonia (the standard clockwork/toyshop dance routine performance). Live outsiders could be the decent guitar based numbers from Denmark and Finland if you can get a decent price (25-1+).  

Doccortex advises: Decent bet on the UK at 13-1, Small bets on Denmark and Finland each way at 25-1+. (All prices on Betfair)

The Top 10 will comprise; France, UK, Azerbaijan, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Estonia, Russia, Hungary, Germany.

Good luck Eurovision fans!

Doccortex