Eurovision 2012 Betting Guide

The decision to move away from the public vote and now involve 'expert juries' in the voting process has made a mockery of the competition. There is now a 50-50 split between experts and public in each country and this is purely because the more powerful western nations didn't like the results that democracy was producing. If an 'Eastern' government introduced this system in their elections we would probably impose economic sanctions, however when we do it to stop the Moldova's of this world winning Eurovision it's fine. Stuff democracy when it suits us! Rant over, and here's hoping for a Georgia, Moldova or Albania victory.

The days of a fairly predictable competition are gone and it's now a bit of a lottery to make money betting on Eurovision. It's not impossible however. We're now looking for performances that will appeal to both the public and mysterious 'music industry insiders' on the panels. Maybe it is impossible after all.

This year's collection of songs are marginally better than last year's, but this is in no way a vintage competition. Sweden lead the market with what looks like a false favourite. It's a warbling, euphoric dance track that should go top ten, but hopefully won't win. But what do you oppose it with? The list of possibilities looks weak in the extreme. Russia have entered a gang of ancient dinner ladies who may get the sympathy vote from the public, but possibly not the juries. Italy's entry is an Amy Whitehouse wannabe and is agreeable enough but not outstanding, while the UK's own Engelburt Humperdinck sounds like he's stuck in a sixties time warp. More likely contenders look like Serbia's power ballad, Iceland's duet and Turkey's comedy sea shanty. You can also throw in lively outsiders such as Denmark, Norway and even Azerbajain.

This year I'll be waiting for the actual performances and betting once all the songs have been sung. If you want to bet ante-post I'd recommend Iceland, Sweden and Serbia as the possible serious challengers with Norway and Turkey thrown in as wild cards. Anything can happen on Saturday, so don't be afraid to move for a big outsider if they produce a fantastic performance on the night and you fancy the song. Having said this, Sweden is the likeliest winner, but presents no value at all at around the 6-4 mark. 

From a music point of view my personal favourite was Finland's entry that got knocked out in the semi-final. I quite like Romania as well. But as we all know Eurovision has little to do with quality music.

Recommendations if you're desperate:

• Iceland to win at 66-1
• Serbia to win at 17-1 or bigger
• Turkey Each Way at 65-1 or bigger
• Keep your eye on big performances by Denmark and Norway  

Fingers crossed for a decent showing from these selections, but I wouldn't put my mortagage on anything let alone Eurovision. So go gamble responsibly and enjoy Saturday evening's festivities.